Risk vs. Risk Perception

Many people may remember being admonished by their mother for risky behavior, like running with scissors across the kitchen. 

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I engage in risky behavior daily, sometimes knowingly, sometimes not.  Luckily, it’s mostly small risks I encounter.  For example, walking around barefoot in my house after a party, only narrowly avoiding stepping on broken glass.  Or when I jaywalk, eat unhealthy foods, drink, walk to class on icy sidewalks, or even just choose to procrastinate on homework.  All of these have risks associated with them, some physically dangerous and others merely detrimental to my success in school.  I like to imagine that I am constantly avoiding both seen and unseen risks, making me unwittingly brave as I face down small-time hazards.  Very rarely do I knowingly engage in behavior I know to be very dangerous.  Outside of obviously reckless behavior, how risky are our daily lives though?  And how does our collective perception line up with reality?  Often times, not well at all.  Our idea of what is dangerous informs our anxiety more often than the knowledge of what really is.  If only we all could have a cold, rational perception of the world’s dangers gleaned from statistics, unclouded by emotion… 

But here I am, still racked by fear over dying in an airplane crash, a mere 1 in 11 million chance, while dying in a car accident has a much higher 1 in 5,000 chance.[1]  Misplaced anxiety like this is often due to the fact that the incredibly rare incident is exactly that: incredibly rare, and therefore a tragic spectacle.  We have become numb to imminent dangers because many just happen so often.  The “creeping normality”[2] of such tragedy has left us blasé.  On average, car crashes take over 37,000 American lives every year.[3]  The US death toll from the Vietnam War is 58,303.[4]  Every two years, Americans kill more Americans than that just on the roads.  The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have claimed 4,500 and 2,300 American lives, respectively, and were predicated on the perceived terrorist threat after an attack left 3,000 Americans dead.[5]  6,700 dead in response to 3,000 dead.  Meanwhile, our daily commutes, road trips, Sunday drives, and drunken joy rides leave 37,000 dead every year.  The risk perception gap shows itself to be especially large when mixed with national fear.  Implementing comprehensive rail systems, buses, bike paths and pedestrian-accessible infrastructure to mitigate commuter deaths would save more American lives than the past several wars we’ve waged.  Maybe actuaries would make better leaders than politicians, or at least make more practical policy. 

           

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[1] http://www.ibtimes.com/after-air-algerie-ah5017-incident-statistical-look-probability-chances-dying-plane-crash-1638206

[2] http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/columns/bill-mcclellan/bill-mcclelllan-normality-creeping-on/article_e006fd5b-2655-5c67-a25c-f42ac67019c1.html

[3] http://asirt.org/Initiatives/Informing-Road-Users/Road-Safety-Facts/Road-Crash-Statistics

[4] http://www.airforcetimes.com/article/20140513/NEWS/305130058/14-names-added-Vietnam-Veterans-Memorial

[5] http://www.defense.gov/news/casualty.pdf

 

Legalized Marijuana

           Timothy Leary famously stated his expectation that between 20 to 30 million Americans would, by the 1970’s, be using LSD regularly for their spiritual and psychological growth.  That was at a time when the total US population hovered close to 200 million, meaning that he foresaw a national use rate between 10 and 15 percent.  Leary urged Americans to follow his mantra to “turn on, tune in, and drop out” from both their familiar state of mind and their contemporary establishment.  This was his vision to “transform America.” 

Today, in a population of around 320 million, regular users amount to a mere 1.1 % of the population[1], far below Dr. Leary’s hope for the 1970’s.  Marijuana users are currently at around 7% of the population, although 38% admit to having tried it in their lifetime[2].  This is far above the LSD use rate, which is at 9.4% lifetime use[3].  As Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska begin their experiment with legalized recreational marijuana and several more open up to medicinal marijuana, we might begin to see the transformed America that Leary was pushing for.  Regular pot users still only amount to around half of what he predicted LSD users to be at.  And their reasons for using it may not exclusively be for the psychological and spiritual growth that Leary extolled.  But can the act of decriminalizing and even legalizing marijuana in various states be attributed to the counter-cultural movement of the 1960’s?

All things considered, not really.  At the very most, Leary’s “Transform America” movement could only be tangentially beneficial for the recent approval of marijuana legalization.  Many psychologists, various medical professionals and scientific historians even consider Leary’s fervent criticisms of government and mainstream society along with his questionable approach to LSD experimentation to be detrimental to legal acceptance of both psychedelics and marijuana[4].  Amidst the drug craze of the hippie generation which was cheered on by Leary and others, including fellow psychologist Richard Alpert (now Ram Dass), the Controlled Substance Act was approved by Richard Nixon and the Drug Enforcement Agency was created.  Both LSD and marijuana are on the highest schedule (I) of the CSA, meaning that the agency claims they have no known medical usefulness and having high potential for abuse[5].  These claims are at odds with almost all research on both drugs and shows a gross ignorance on the potential of these substances[6].  While most Americans now approve legalizing marijuana (51%[7]), the federal government remains obstinate in the face of public opinion and the mainstream scientific community.  Leary’s legacy, both good and bad, seems to be embodied in this dichotomy between governmental policy and public opinion.  Americans are undoubtedly less inclined to readily accept the relative safety and research potential of LSD, but it seems we may have a reached a tipping point for the acceptance of marijuana.  Timothy Leary’s desire for a nation both accepting and ingesting LSD is far from reality, but perhaps the country was turned on to accept marijuana.  How much of that, if any, is due to Leary’s mantras is likely small.  Maybe his antics even delayed progress on this front.  As a country, we will see the effects of legalizing marijuana in time.   

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[1] http://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/nationwide-trends

[2] http://www.gallup.com/poll/163835/tried-marijuana-little-changed-80s.aspx

[3] http://www.drugabuse.gov/drugs-abuse/hallucinogens

[4] http://www.wired.com/2013/10/timothy-leary-archives/2/

[5] http://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf

[6] http://www.drugpolicy.org/sites/default/files/DPA-MAPS_DEA_Science_Final.pdf

[7] http://www.gallup.com/poll/179195/majority-continues-support-pot-legalization.aspx